illusion of validity termbias
subjective confidence is a poor predictor of accuracy
How sure you feel about a prediction is mostly about the coherence of your story, not its accuracy. Experts in domains with low predictability (stock picking, long-range political forecasts) feel just as confident as experts in domains with high predictability — the feeling itself is unreliable. The corrective is calibration: track your confident predictions and see how often they're right.